Hosts Miles Yu and Wilson Shirley discuss the tradeoffs in the United States’ support for Ukraine given the urgency of deterring war in the Indo-Pacific, recent statements from South Korea’s president about the global importance of defending Taiwan, and two recent arrests related to the Chinese Communist Party’s once-secret overseas police stations in New York. Follow the China Center's work at: https://www.hudson.org/china-center
Hosts Miles Yu and Wilson Shirley discuss the tradeoffs in the United States’ support for Ukraine given the urgency of deterring war in the Indo-Pacific, recent statements from South Korea’s president about the global importance of defending Taiwan, and two recent arrests related to the Chinese Communist Party’s once-secret overseas police stations in New York.
Follow the China Center's work at: https://www.hudson.org/china-center
Wilson Shirley:
Hello and welcome back to the China Insider, a podcast from the China Center at Hudson Institute.
It's Tuesday, April 25th, and we have three topics to go through this week. The first is the question, an evergreen question about whether or not the war in Ukraine is a distraction for the US when it comes to the urgent task of deterring Chinese aggression against Taiwan. The second is recent comments made by South Korean President Yoon about how the issue of Taiwan is not just a matter between China and Taiwan, but a global issue. We'll talk about what that statement is all about and why the PRC had such an intense reaction to it. And the third will be a follow-up on a story that we've talked about a couple of times. That's the issue of Chinese overseas police stations, including in Manhattan. Last week, the Department of Justice arrested two Chinese individuals who are running an overseas police station, a secret one in Manhattan. We'll talk about what that arrest means and how these police stations fit into the PRC's global strategy. Miles, how are you doing?
Miles Yu:
Very good, Wilson. Glad to be with you again.
Wilson Shirley:
Glad to be with you as well. So, our first topic today is something that a lot of people have been talking about for a while, and it's something that we've referenced on this podcast a couple of times, and that is the link between the current war in Ukraine and deterring a war over Taiwan. A lot of people say that the two issues are linked, and there's an increasing chorus of voices saying that the war in Ukraine may be a distraction from the critical task of deterring a war in Taiwan. There was a debate at the Hudson Institute yesterday featuring our President and CEO, John Walters, and Elbridge Colby of the Marathon Initiative about this issue specifically, and I wanted to continue the conversation here with you. So, when you think about US support for Ukraine as a defense itself against Russia, do you think that that is a distraction from the critical task of deterring the PRC from aggression against Taiwan?
Miles Yu:
I mean, in theory, it could be a distraction, but in reality, it’s not. The reason is that people look at the war in Ukraine as a failure of deterrence. I look at it differently. Actually, I think it's probably a triumph of deterrence because Russia obviously launched a war against Ukraine, not just for Ukraine. Russia wants to overturn the entire order of international reality. So, Russia said very clearly the whole issue is NATO expansion, the whole issue is Western dominance in global affairs. So, he wants to change that. So, I look at this factor that the war is very limited in a very small part of Ukraine as a victory of deterrence. The fact that the war has not expanded beyond this eastern region of Ukraine. Obviously, people in Ukraine suffer tremendously, and that's why the West has stood with the Ukrainian people in winning the war. So, I don't necessarily see this as actually a failure in deterrence.
So, the lesson we should draw from this is that we should do similar and strengthen alliance, particularly the American-led bilateral alliance in conjunction with American-led NATO alliance, deter China from launching similar aggression against Taiwan. Now, in reality, as well, United States has not really heavily invested its strategic assets in Ukraine. We provide the critical material and finances for the war on behalf of the Ukrainian people, but the United States has no boots on the ground. Most of the weapons used for the Taiwan scenario have not been allocated to Ukraine because the war in Taiwan will be necessarily focused on air, sea, and amphibious. And none of that is really germane to the ground war in Ukraine.
Wilson Shirley:
Yeah.
Miles Yu:
So, I think, you know, as long as we keep our strategic focus on China and deterrence will be sufficient. So, I don't necessarily think it's a distraction.
Wilson Shirley:
So, I want to push you on that a little bit, though. I think the point that you make about the weapons that would be needed to deter a war over, in the Taiwan Strait versus the weapons needed now to win a war in Ukraine are different in a lot of ways. The Taiwanese people are not necessarily going to be using Javelins and Stingers, for instance. These ground-to-ground missiles are not going to factor as much in Taiwan. They need undersea, they need anti-ship missiles, and so on and so forth. The people on the other side of the debate though would point to a few facts that I think resonate, at least they make sense. So, the US has authorized about $113 billion in aid to Ukraine, and that aid takes a variety of different forms, humanitarian aid, financial aid, a lot of it is military though.
Meanwhile, there's a huge backlog in the sale of military equipment to Taiwan. The figures that I've seen put it between $18 and 19 billion. Again, that's a very large number. So, if someone is talking to you and says, “Miles, we have given the Ukrainians so much, meanwhile we can't deliver even the things that we have promised Taiwan in a timely fashion,” how would you respond to that? And I'm going to add one more thing to that. They would say, “The situation in Taiwan is much more urgent than the situation in Ukraine, or it could be if China invades.”
Miles Yu:
I agree with you a hundred percent on urgency of the Taiwan issue. China is much more formidable military power against Taiwan than Russia is against Ukraine because of the alliance system in Europe, Russia has to act very cautiously. But our alliance in Asia Pacific is strong but mostly bilateral, not multilateral. That's why NATO has moved very quickly to get involved in Asia Pacific. You see that on a daily basis. So, even the NATO official, the EU official is talking about joint patrol in Taiwan Strait. So, $10, 20 billion weapons sale to Taiwan in comparison to $150 billion to Ukraine. You got to put that in perspective. And we give weapons to Ukraine and to buy American weapons. So that's.
Wilson Shirley:
Yeah, to replenish our stocks a lot of the time.
Miles Yu:
That's right. So, it's not a bad idea. Again, there is a different type of weapons required for warfare in Ukraine and in Taiwan. I'm not going to go into details about specific amount because that probably is classified information, but I don't, I’m concerned about the tendency that Ukraine might become a distraction. I'm not sure that distraction has become a reality yet. So far, all signs indicated to me that American strategic focus on China has not changed at all. As a matter of fact, this has been steadfast from beginning of the war. Even when the first shot was fired. President Biden said very clearly, “There will be no American direct military intervention in Ukraine.” But American president has said repeatedly “There will be direct military intervention in Taiwan.”
Wilson Shirley:
I think four times.
Miles Yu:
So, resolve was there, the focus has not changed. Now, when it comes to specific weapons, weapons requirement, as I say, I mean America is not, you know, idling by, we are busy preparing for the Taiwan scenario. We're getting basing issue resolved. We are stockpiling our strategic assets, and so, we're doing a lot of joint interoperability drills with our allies. So, deterrence is increasing, while in the meantime, urgency in Taiwan Strait obviously is still increasing as well.
Wilson Shirley:
Okay. So, closing question on this segment. When you look at US policy towards Ukraine, keeping in mind the urgency of the Taiwan scenario, what do you think the objective of US policy in Ukraine today should be?
Miles Yu:
I don't know whether there's a stated policy, but I do know there is a sheer reality that is, the worst thing that could happen to Taiwan is when, for Russia to win the war and to extricate itself from the war quagmire in Ukraine so that Russia and China would join hands to deal with the Taiwan scenario.
Wilson Shirley:
Oh, that's interesting.
Miles Yu:
That will be a very formidable alliance for the United States to deal [with]. In other words, if Russia is stuck in Ukraine, even if Russia is, even if Russia is defeated in Ukraine, that will significantly reduce the risk of war against Taiwan.
Wilson Shirley:
So, create a quagmire for Russia in Ukraine so that they cannot partner with China against Taiwan.
Miles Yu:
To the effect, yes, but they, you know, China's strategic confidence to launch aggression to a large degree depends on China's strength of relationship with Russia. If China and Russia were able to join hand targeting Taiwan, and that would be the very, very bad thing to happen so far, as long as Russia is stuck in Ukraine, that likelihood is mitigated.
Wilson Shirley:
Yeah, without American troops on the ground shooting or being shot at is another important point to add there.
Miles Yu:
Again, Russia is being deterred in Ukraine. I mean, it cannot go beyond Ukraine. So otherwise, the whole NATO will go after Russia. So, Russia knows this. So, the war in Ukraine is limited. I don't, even though with the enormous American financial support, it is really, really important for us to make sure that Russia would not prevail in Ukraine. As I say, if Russia prevail in Ukraine, the Beijing-Moscow axis will have a much bigger threat against Taiwan, and that will be a very bad situation.
Wilson Shirley:
Yeah, so, let's talk about Taiwan specifically and the US's partners around Taiwan because there was an interesting statement last week from the President of South Korea, President Yoon who gave remarks in an interview with Reuters that caught a lot of attention around the world. President Yoon said, “The Taiwan issue is not simply an issue between China and Taiwan, but like the issue of North Korea, it is a global issue.” So, Miles, what do you think President Yoon meant by that statement and why does it matter?
Miles Yu:
He meant the reality. Taiwan issue is not a regional issue. It's not even a sovereign issue. Taiwan issue is fundamentally about freedom versus tyranny and to go beyond, the Taiwan scenario, if China does launch military aggression against Taiwan, and if China wins, China were never going to stop there because China has so many grievances against its neighbors, very much like late 19th century Germany. It's a revanchist regime and it wants to basically to place itself at the top of the world and through military means. China right now has territorial disputes, not only with South Korea but with Japan, with Vietnam, with India, with many of the countries in the South China Sea region. You see, this is why President Yoon said Taiwan issue is not just an issue between China and Taiwan. It's a global issue. Once that war started, and you're going to bring at least the top three economies of the world into the fight, right?
Wilson Shirley:
The top three being the US, China, and Japan.
Miles Yu:
Yeah, so this is going to be global. Once that happens, then the global system of international governance will collapse. So, that's why it is very important that we cannot really let Taiwan be China's Sudetenland. You have to stop there. Funny thing is China’s diplomatic fight against the world, did not stop in, with the South Korean president. China basically said, “Listen, South Korea should address Taiwan issue with caution,” threatening the president of South Korea, and the South Korean government also was equally incensed and summoned the Chinese ambassador to Seoul and have a dressing down. Incidentally, you have the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines, and he threatened the Philippine government is saying that “Listen, if you gave the US government the military basing rights on your soil, you have to really care about the 150,000 Filipino workers in Taiwan.” That's a blatant threat.
Wilson Shirley:
That is a blatant threat.
Miles Yu:
So, the Filipino government obviously is not very, very amused by that. And then just over the weekend, you see the Chinese ambassador to France conduct a major, major faux pas and cause a firestorm of criticism and protest. The Chinese ambassador to France went on French TV and saying that “Hey the Ukrainian status, you know, Crimea status has not been really settled.” And he went further to say, you know, “All the former Soviet republics that become independent after the collapse of Soviet Union, their international status as sovereign nations have not been settled yet.” This is just absolutely crazy. So, for the ambassador to say things like that obviously caused an international firestorm. China sometimes forget its own Marxist-Leninist way of looking at the world. It's maybe good for domestic propaganda, but internationally it really does not hold water, it makes China look like silly, aggressive. And it’s true reflection of China's strategic intent. I think the world should really wake up and pay close attention to China's rhetoric.
Wilson Shirley:
Yeah, it's interesting that the ambassador to France made that statement because the PRC in most of its claims about Taiwan, always talks about sovereignty, always talks about territorial integrity. And China's vice foreign minister actually made a statement against President Yoon’s statement saying, “The South Korean leader made no mention of the one-China principle, but it quoted the Taiwan issue with the Korean Peninsula issue. Both North and South Korea are sovereign states that have joined the United Nations, much like most of the post-Soviet republics as well.” So, it just kind of undermines the position there. But I wanted to talk to you a little bit more about South Korea's role, specifically in any US-led or free world-led effort to counter PRC or deter PRC aggression against Taiwan. So, when you think of South Korea's role, what makes them so important? Why does the US need them in any counter-PRC coalition?
Miles Yu:
Well, Souths Korea obviously is very strategically important to all sides. China views South Korea as a wedge between the US and Japan on one side and South Korea on the other. So, it has cultivated South Korea's nationalist sentiment against Japan for historical reasons. China almost succeeded. But South Korea's democracies. democracy means that the leadership changes all the time and always in the right direction. So now. we have the right leader in President Yoon and who basically realized China is playing South Korea against US-led ally, alliance in Northeast Asia. So, he basically made this very positive step to voluntarily solve the problem of World War II settlement issue with Japan. And also, he stood up to China and I think that, and South Korea and Japan, Australia, and New Zealand joined the NATO summit last year, which is historic and unprecedented.
Wilson Shirley:
In Madrid, yeah, and I think they're going to join again this year.
Miles Yu:
So, I think this is going to be a very important move. And I think, you know, the more a country deals with China, the more that country will become vigilant against China. So, because they both understand China's strategic intent is to upend the existing international order that everybody benefits from.
Wilson Shirley:
Yeah, and that strategic intent is visible not only in China's neighborhood but around the world, as you've talked about several times, Miles. And I want to close this off on an example that shows that. So, last week there was a story out of New York, and I'll just read you the headline of the Department of, US Department of Justice's press release about what happened in New York. The headline is “Two arrested for operating illegal overseas police station of the Chinese government.” So, Miles, we've talked about Chinese overseas police stations a couple of times on this podcast. What happened last week?
Miles Yu:
Well, last week was that the FBI basically arrested two individuals in Chinatown, New York for conducting espionage. I believe that's the charge. And also, they charge over 40 others who have committed similar crime. So, this basically is a Chinese secretive police station placed in over 150 some overseas capitals, mostly foreign countries. And you have this in London, in Paris, in Seoul, in Tokyo, and in the United States of course, whose job is to basically, you know, to extend China’s police state arm over the Chinese diaspora to spy on Chinese immigrants.
Wilson Shirley:
Yeah, they claim that they're there to help with things like passports or visas or provide sort of normal services to Chinese nationals abroad.
Miles Yu:
Oh, that's a disguise. They constantly got people they want back, particularly dissidents, and show their dissidents’ families in China will be in trouble if they don't cooperate, don't go back to China.
Wilson Shirley:
Yeah.
Miles Yu:
So, this is also related to China's, you know, Fox Hunt Operation that is a global.
Wilson Shirley:
Can you give a? Yeah.
Miles Yu:
Global, global body snatching operation that's been going on for over decades. This is not just, you know, once the United States arrested two suspects, many countries are taking a hard look at their own countries, how much they're being penetrated. But the British Parliament is particularly incensed by this. So they are, they're investing some of the very high-level similar Chinese espionage activities in the UK. And you have a similar situation in other countries. South Korea actually has just indicted a Chinese businessman for his role in harassing the dissidents, Chinese dissidents in this place, the secret police station. And then the Netherlands and Greece and Spain. Those countries were actually taking similar action against those overseas secret Chinese police station.
Wilson Shirley:
And listeners can go on the Department of Justice's websites and, website and see exactly what the charges against these individuals are. But they're just, as Miles said, attempting to intimidate dissidents to go back to China, various charges like that. But Miles, this police station has been shut down, according to the press release since the fall of 2022. But are there more overseas police stations of the PRC in the United States today, or do we know?
Miles Yu:
Oh yeah. There are many, many government entities disguised as some innocuous business operations or even legit business operations. And this is why each country should really enforce their domestic law. And some countries actually following American’s lead and they shut down all the known civil police stations like Germany and Ireland. They have shut down. And they also arrest some of the suspects. This is a global issue. That's why when President Yoon of South Korea say, “Taiwan issue is not just the issue between China and Taiwan,” I will say the similar thing, that China problem is not just the problem between United States and China. It's a global problem. Every country would have the same thing. So, Chinese government always try to pin everything down on the United States for all the problems that China is having. And that is not true because it's not the US versus China, it's China versus the rest of the world.
Wilson Shirley:
Yeah, and the examples of these police stations, again, secret, intimidating members of the Chinese diaspora, harassing members of the Chinese diaspora, not only in the United States but around the world is another piece of it, evidence to support that thesis. Miles, I think that's all the time that we have this week. Thank you so much. Looking forward to recording another episode of the China Insider with you next week.
Miles Yu:
All right, thank you, and looking forward to it too.
Wilson Shirley:
Thanks for tuning in to this episode of the China Insider, a podcast from the China Center at Hudson Institute. We appreciate Hudson for making this podcast possible. Follow Miles and all of the additional great work we do at hudson.org. Please remember to rate and review this podcast, and we'll see you next time on the China Insider.