The Chinese Communist Party’s spy balloon may be a Sputnik moment for the United States, as millions of Americans saw pictures of a surveillance device sent by the United States’ top geopolitical rival flying freely over the heartland. Miles Yu and Wilson Shirley discuss the history of Chinese spy operations and what the downed balloon means for US-China relations, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s postponed trip to Beijing. Then they return to a story that’s gone largely unreported in the US press but that continues to go viral in China—a missing boy whose body was found recently. The incident raises questions about human trafficking, organ harvesting, and how trustworthy the Chinese people think their government really is.
The Chinese Communist Party’s spy balloon may be a Sputnik moment for the United States, as millions of Americans saw pictures of a surveillance device sent by the United States’ top geopolitical rival flying freely over the heartland. Miles Yu and Wilson Shirley discuss the history of Chinese spy operations and what the downed balloon means for US-China relations, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s postponed trip to Beijing. Then they return to a story that’s gone largely unreported in the US press but that continues to go viral in China—a missing boy whose body was found recently. The incident raises questions about human trafficking, organ harvesting, and how trustworthy the Chinese people think their government really is.
Wilson (00:00):
Hello and welcome back to the China Insider, a podcast from the China Center at Hudson Institute.
(00:13):
It's Tuesday, February 7th, and we have two topics today. The first, what everyone has been talking about over the last week, and that is the Chinese spy balloon that went over most of the continental United States last week, Miles and I will get into that, what it means, what the US reaction was like and how it played within China. The second is a follow up from a story we talked about last week, about a 15 year old boy who went missing last October. We'll talk about new developments and that story and why Miles thinks that it's one of the biggest news items out of China over the last few months and why the United States should be paying more attention. Miles, how are you doing?
Dr. Yu (00:49):
I'm good, Wilson. How are you?
Wilson (00:50):
I'm doing well. I have been waiting to talk to you for a few days now because there's a story that everyone has been paying attention to, obviously the balloon that went over the entire United States. So just to do a quick timeline replay. On Saturday, the Chinese Communist party's balloon was detected over Alaska. That was Saturday, January 28th. Then on Thursday, February 2nd, the Pentagon issued a statement that it was over US airspace. That's when it was over a Billings, Montana. And then on Saturday, February 4th, the balloon was shot down by an F 22 and this was the first air to air kill in the F 22’s history. So Miles, what do you make of the balloon incident from last week?
Dr. Yu (01:33):
Well, I've been talking about the balloon incident all week pretty much. Yeah, and I think obviously this is a very important moment not just symbolically, but also substantively. This is basically reflective of China's typical modus operandi. Every time there is some kind of a major meeting among leaders of the two countries, China is always doing something is China also always tends to do something like this. In Chinese grand strategy, it's called to use confrontation to extract cooperation. Mr. Blinken is scheduled to go to China, and this is a high stake talk. My sense is that they always want to create a crisis like this so that there's always something that would enrich the America psychologically sort of to test the resolve of Americans. And then at the negotiation table, you will spend a lot of time to talk about this manmade crisis. China does this all the time.
(02:35):
I mean you can go back as well back all the way back to the Korean War, the Korean war lasted for three years. The real fight, actual fighting took place only in one year, in the last two years is all about China trying to gain some kind of a negotiation advantage. So they launch all kinds of on and off assaults not just to necessarily win but to gain upper hand in a settlement table. This is exactly the same thing in the past, whenever there's a US China major summit, the Chinese government normally would arrest a bunch of very prominent dissidents, so force America to focus on that rather than the substantial issues at hand. So this is a very traditional Chinese tactics, except this time it backfired.
Wilson (03:19):
Yeah. So let's talk about the tactic a little bit. So obviously the visit that was supposed to happen was Secretary of State Anthony Blinken going to Beijing, meeting with Xi Jinping on the fifth and sixth. So Sunday and Monday. It was kind of confusing to me though how the CCP was playing into this whole controversy. They denied that it was a spy balloon. They called it a civilian airship for research, mainly meteorological purposes. So that was confusing to me if this is kind of a forcing mechanism. The other thing that was confusing to me is they expressed regret and you don't really get the CCP expressing regret a lot of the time. So talk a little bit about that.
Dr. Yu (04:00):
Well, this is basically this incident is a public relation disaster on both of the Biden administration and also on the Chinese side. The Chinese response, idiotic and irrational to say the least, as you mentioned, they at first denied this, they actually condemn American so-called fabrication. This then didn't exist. And once presented the irrefutable evidence, they say, oh it's ours. It's a civilian weather balloon. But then you fail to say, which civilian companies actually operating this or what is the commercial utility of this particular balloon? And who operates this? So obviously this is a fake Pentagon from the beginning insists that this obviously is a military controlled surveillance balloon. And then when they are cornered China the entire Chinese government turned wolf warrior calling American an overreaction, so to speak. And after being shot down, they launched a serious protest and accused the US of being reckless and irresponsible. And then promised retaliation this behavior of a total rogue regime, and I don't think it does. This is not going to do any good for the Chinese reputation.
Wilson (05:12):
In the US. Obviously it was what China watchers were talking about, even non-China watchers because I think one thing that makes this resonate so much and makes it so understandable to the American people is this is a spy balloon over US sovereign territory. Anthony Blinken said that it was a violation of sovereignty. That's a pretty strong statement. So what do you make of us reaction sort of writ large?
Dr. Yu (05:36):
Well, the US reaction from the administration point of view is also PR disaster. First of all, you keep it a secret from the America, right? So President Biden said that he ordered the shoot down on Wednesday, and at that point the visit should have been openly made as a cancellation,
Wilson (05:55):
But they were keeping it secret according to Bloomberg reports, at least so that the visit could go smoothly. And the people who discovered it was That's right,
Dr. Yu (06:04):
Yeah. The postponement did not occur until Friday. So after it is been exposed by the public,
Wilson (06:11):
By local media in Montana.
Dr. Yu (06:13):
Exactly right. Once exposed, the administration said, well, the reason we didn't want to shoot it down is cause the debris might harm people on the ground. First of all, this is also not persuasive. I mean, ultimately the balloon was shot down in South Carolina coastal area. I can guarantee you there are more people in South Carolina coastal area than in Alaska and Montana.
Wilson (06:36):
People are watching. We're talking from Myrtle Beach.
Dr. Yu (06:37):
That's right. We're talking about six miles off the coast of Myrtle Beach. I mean there's no metropolitan population
Wilson (07:29):
And there's a lot of open land in Montana.
Dr. Yu (07:31):
That's exactly right. So this actually is not, that's exactly what happened. You shoot the balloon, which is a big target and the potentially dangerous spy apparatus that would come down in one piece, that piece will fall on the ground that impact a very limited area, few hundred feet at most. This is not going to be very good for the Biden Administration, but I understand. The last thing is they resort to what? This is something similar happened during the Trump administration. Something may have happened to the Trump administration, but it did not penetrate into inland America number one. Yeah, number two.
Wilson (08:08):
And for that period of time too, it was going over US territory for about a week.
Dr. Yu (08:13):
Well, yeah, that's right. So first of all, I mean first of all, major American senior officials from the Trump administration have denied that. They were never made aware of this. Intel committees say, well this, yes, this happened, but it's so insignificant we didn't report it. I mean, whose fault is that? So this what about ism is going to come back to hurt the reputation of Trump, the Biden administration as well. So overall, I give it an f grade for the American government. So
Wilson (08:44):
You are in the tell the public immediately about the balloon shoot down the balloon immediately. School of thought,
Dr. Yu (08:50):
I mean, yes. I mean I'm in that school of thought, not just for the reason of a brazen violation of American aerospace. Let me just say a few words. Say your words about this balloon. This balloon is not as PRC says benign. This is the military balloon. The Chinese has this military balloon on display at its yearly air show. Oh really? Yeah, we saw It in an open display. There are surveillance balloon, there are radar equipped and the laser are equipped guided balloons. So secondly, low space, high altitude balloons like this can function in a very, very unique way. It is low speed and you can even stay stationary. Satellite, even geo synchronized satellites cannot do the same function because you can only focus on one particular angle. If you have a low space, high altitude balloon like this, you can collect intelligence from different angles, much wider angle. Satellite cannot do that.
Wilson (10:00):
And the intelligence would be over like missile sites
Dr. Yu (10:02):
That's exactly right. Satellite is very difficult to satellite for satellite to collect a ground signal intelligence, the low space, high altitude balloon can do that easily. You can collect the signature signal intelligence from the Americans air defense system. And so this is a very, very dangerous facility. So we don't have to look at this as if this is a 19th century military operation. It could be very sophisticated. But most importantly, this is an operational ongoing spy device. When you have a spying device that's still operational, collecting American intelligence, potentially dangerous potentially very crucial and important intelligence like the intelligence on the Americans and nuclear missile silos, the first thing you do is to stop it. Yeah, I mean to capture it or disable it or shoot it down. Now I have to say this, despite the debacle of public relations in America, there is one silver lining that is this incident has a dubiously good consequence. That is it is actually a Sputnik moment for America. Anybody in America are still doubting about the present and imminent danger of the China threat should wake up. Absolutely. I mean they see absolutely in their naked eye. This is a problem. As a matter of fact, the publicly outrage of this balloon incident partly is directly at China, but also partly director against our own government incompetence. And we feel the urgency for us to act tougher. So I expect the American government will learn the lessons and they'll act much tougher and more realistic.
Wilson (11:51):
Sputnik in 57, the shooting down of the U2 spy plane in 1960, really important early Cold War moments. Quick question here about US response. A lot of people have been debating what the administration should do. Very few people are happy with it overall, it seems Richard Hass and Neil Ferguson were tweeting back and forth of it about it. They said, the more I think about it, the best response to the world would be to shoot down the balloon. And then for Secretary Blinken to go to China, strength and diplomacy are natural compliments. China would then need to make the difficult decision of whether or not to accept him coming or to receive or to rescind the invite. So should we have shot the balloon down and then Secretary Blinken go? Or is it good that Secretary Blinken is not going, but we waited too long to shoot down the balloon?
Dr. Yu (12:36):
Anybody who make that claim is the old engagement school that does not understand how the Chinese system operates. Yeah, it's very important for us to understand. China likes to have all this high level at most senior level of strategic dialogue, so to speak. It's not designed to solve any particular problems. We have been doing this for over four decades. None of the major problems either on human rights trade, fentanyl, regional and global security have been solved. The only utility for the Chinese communist government is to have this kind of high level senior level dialogue so that it can send the signal to the Chinese people that the leader of the free world can come to Beijing and to sit down with me one on one. So that was served as a very powerful legitimizing force for the Chinese regime. As much as we need to cooperate with China, the Chinese government needs that kind of a most senior level dialogue for a political show.
(13:47):
So it is absolutely important for us to really set an agenda for the Chinese. If you don't solve the problem, we won't come to Beijing. There'll be no dialogue. And incidentally, having a dialogue with the Chinese leadership has never been really fruitful because Chinese government also uses as a way to demoralize our friends and allies in the region. And it's created an illusion that somehow Washington and Beijing are now hob, knobbing, chummy good buddies, and that's very bad for the Americans alliance building. So I think that Mr. Blinken should never go to Beijing in the first place. Yeah,
Wilson (14:28):
It's been five years. It's been five
Dr. Yu (14:30):
five years. Secretary and I think the Biden administration, I'll give the credit where credit is due, did the right thing. And by postponing this, hopefully I think it will cancel this because the best way to deal with China as President Trump, his major, major diplomatic accomplishment is his show to the adversary, his total willingness to walk away from the negotiating table. If American demands is not made, we should do the same to the Chinese, otherwise we're going to lose.
Wilson (15:00):
Sure. I want to ask one more question before we move on to our last topic. And I think that everyone in America, we know how we were responding to this. Everyone looking up to the sky, seeing where the balloon was. How was this playing out in China? Were the Chinese people paying attention to it? Was there a lot of propaganda around it?
Dr. Yu (15:17):
Oh, the propaganda is total
Wilson (16:22):
I think you're right. This could be a Sputnik moment going forward and we'll see how it plays out both in the United States and in China over the years ahead. And I want to finish up with a topic that we discussed last week. So in the news in the US about China, it's all about the balloon. Within China, there's been a follow up on the story of a boy named Hu Jin Yu who is 15 years old. He disappeared on October 14th, 2022. He wasn't discovered for 106 days and when he was discovered his body was hanging outside of his middle school. And Miles, you have an update for us on this story that you've been following.
Dr. Yu (17:00):
So last Thursday, the Chinese government came up with its own version of the event. This really further fueled public outrage because the Chinese official version is so incredulously bad. So people just challenge the virtual version left and right, the public fury is so huge. If Chinese government for some reason suddenly collapsed tomorrow, this story might be a trigger. So this is how big it is. I'm totally surprised there has not been any Western pick up on this because of Chinese version is really, really questionable. So there's a lot of people in China were saying, Hey, listen, this area, the body was discovered, this boy was hanging on the tree has been, according to Chinese government, searched over and over again. Yeah, it was right
Wilson (17:47):
Yeah, it was right By his school
Dr. Yu (17:47):
How come before that happened? Suddenly because of public outrage, this suddenly appeared, the body. Secondly, according to the report, people see that the clothes the boy had on was put on backwards the buttons or in the back. So people speculate, well that's because maybe people don't want to see easily whether this guy still had this organ from the front. Thirdly, the Chinese official version is this boy himself on the tree way above the ground on the shoe string of his own. So you have a lot of people trying to demonstrate the physical impossibility of such thing. So they try a lot of shoestrings. So China, in China, the word shoestring is actually banned. So, you cannot redo this.
Wilson (18:35):
Online on social media,
Dr. Yu (18:36):
Online on social media, Chinese government is trying. On top of that, the public outrage is growing so fast that some people who challenge the official version are being arrested, harassed by the police. So this is basically an issue that started small but is going to potentially have a very big societal impact. So this is a story, and I think we should really, really keep eyes on, continue to report on this, right? Because this touched upon a much larger issue. Yeah. It's not just about Chinese government mendacity, it's also about human trafficking in China and also organ harvesting. Yeah, hundreds of thousands of people disappear mysteriously. People are asking why and whether there is an organized crime organization kidnap the skies for their organs.
Wilson (19:34):
Yeah, it's really unbelievable. You talked about hundreds of thousand people going missing. I've seen a stat that 2,739 people go missing in China every day. That's from the Jiang Min Social Assistance Institute. And it's really unbelievable too that that can happen in a country that has more security cameras than anywhere else in the world. Something like 540 million security cameras are in China. So the fact this boy goes missing the story is so unbelievable. It touches on Oregon harvesting and human trafficking, a lot of themes that maybe Americans aren't paying attention to every day, but the Chinese people certainly are. I think we're going to continue to follow that story, but that's all the time we have for this week. Thank you so much, Miles. Looking forward to our next podcast. We'll see if it's about a balloon or about something else.
Dr. Yu (20:20):
All right. Goodbye Wilson.
Wilson (20:26):
Thanks for tuning in to this episode of the China Insider, a podcast from the China Center at Hudson Institute. We appreciate Hudson for making this podcast possible follow miles and all of the additional great work we do@hudson.org. Please remember to rate and review this podcast and we'll see you next time on the China Insider.