Shane Leary joins Miles Yu to discuss the mysterious outbreak of a new respiratory virus in China, escalating tensions between the People’s Republic of China and the Philippine government over the Second Thomas Shoal, and the one-year anniversary of the White Paper Movement, which brought an end to zero-COVID restrictions.
Shane Leary joins Miles Yu to discuss the mysterious outbreak of a new respiratory virus in China, escalating tensions between the People’s Republic of China and the Philippine government over the Second Thomas Shoal, and the one-year anniversary of the White Paper Movement, which brought an end to zero-COVID restrictions.
Miles Yu:
Welcome to China Insider, a podcast from Hudson Institute's China Center.
Shane Leary:
It's Tuesday, and we have three topics for this week. The first is the outbreak of a mysterious pneumonia in China, which has prompted concern globally and probes from the WHO. Second, we discuss escalating tensions in the Philippines exclusive economic zone, and what the US can do to better counter the PRC’s aggression in the region. For our last topic, we note the one year anniversary of China's White Paper protest movement, and discuss the state of civil disobedience in China today. Miles, how are you?
Miles Yu:
Very good, Shane.
Shane Leary:
Wonderful. Well, for our first topic, I'll start with the, probably the last thing anyone wants to hear. An unusual outbreak of respiratory illnesses is currently underway in China, which is serious enough, at least, to have prompted the WHO to inquire with the CCP as to the specifics of the situation. This was announced at a press conference on November 13th by China's National Health Commission. The CCP has assured the WHO that they have not detected any unusual or novel diseases. Although given their track record, we should be incredibly cautious about the validity of official statements. Miles, can you paint a picture for us of what we know so far?
Miles Yu:
Well, first of all, it's really the severity of this outbreak because it involves a lot of people. All hospitals in much of China, particularly North China, are filled with patients beyond capacity. You know, you go to the emergency room and then you take a number and I see hospital in Northern China. It has 700 people waiting, and the waiting hour is 13 [hours]. So that basically is beyond capacity. So that's severity. Secondly, is really, it brings up this opacity of this whole thing, and nobody knows what exactly it is. It brings up the ghost of COVID-19. So, naturally there's a lot of panic. Adding to the domestic panic and international anxiety over this new Chinese mysterious outbreak is that there's no effective medicine to cure this potential pandemic. So this is basically according to Chinese health officials, they say it's a combination of several up to five viral infections, not one single new virus.
But then they say that they don't know exactly what it is. So the, the wise I think, you know many people have speculated there is a wide spread abuse of antibiotics in China. Many people develop physiological resistance to many medications. So people are also very afraid of getting sick. So they take a lot of medicines to prevent and cure their illnesses. Sometimes real, sometimes imagine. So some say China is a country of hypochondriacs. There is some truth to that. Now, of course, you bring up a larger question that is the credibility of the Chinese government in dealing with a public outbreak like this. There's a very little credibility left for the Chinese government. So everybody's worried about this new outbreak. WHO you mentioned that that usually does not demand in the open a member state to provide clinical data on the particular outbreak, but it's all through mostly internal and private communications to its member states.
But this time is different. WHO asked China in the open that the demands information but the information that WHO received has been insufficient. Interestingly, there's another aspect of this that is at precisely the moment of this outbreak, China suddenly announced that it going to give visa free travel for six countries 15 days of visa free travel to China, that those six countries included France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Malaysia. No expectation how many will go, because this is pretty scary. This sort of hacks back to the January, December 2019/January 2020 when there was a outbreak. Chinese government pretend to cover it up, and encourage actually international travel that is highly irresponsible. Now, the country that is very, very alert on this and is Taiwanese government, it's super nervous. It has actually, Taiwan has reactivated the constant inspections of fever, coffee and et cetera for travelers from China.
Shane Leary:
So we, we don't want to be unnecessarily alarmed, but a as you've pointed out, I mean, with an inability to trust Chinese Communist Party with a lack of transparency, it's hard not to sort of, you know, think back to, you know, the outbreak of Covid, the early days when it was underestimated and think, you know, maybe a greater response is warranted as someone who was in the State Department in those early days of Covid and, and had eye on it and, and was, you know, working to craft policy and response. I guess I'm just curious what lessons we should take from that time in terms of, you know, whether or not this turns out to be as deserving of our attention, you know, how we should respond to this in these early days.
Miles Yu:
Well, approaching to public health crisis like this are totally different ways in the West, obviously, it's a public hazard. The leadership will normally come out to assure the public, tell the truth, what exactly it is and what do we look forward to in China is very different. Everything involves about the image and infallibility of a Chinese Communist party. Chinese Communist Party believes it can and will beat nature. So whenever there's a natural disaster like this covered, the first instinct that party leadership has is to cover it up to basically sugar code it as if this is nothing new. And as a matter of fact, one of the most pernicious aspect of the Chinese policy in this regard is that Xi Jinping's first public speech in February, 2020 was about how to use this crisis to showcase the awesome power and the infallibility and superiority of social resistance and the Communist Party itself. So this is basically opportunity for him to make a political statement at the expense of the lives and property of the people of China, and those are the world. So this is really is about the policy orientation. That's the lesson we should really take that the Chinese Communist Party should abandon its ideological commitment and to govern a country like a normal state would,
Shane Leary:
Yeah, I mean, we often talk about the degree to which we've misunderstood the Chinese regime in treating them like they're a market economy, and how there are fundamental aspects of the regime that that sort of make it incompatible with the free market trading system. But this seems to be another set another example where wherein the, the ideology of China has these sort of two components, the conspiratorial thinking, which I think limits its capacity to be transparent, and then this peculiar relationship with nature, which seems to run through a lot of their conflicts, whether it's overfishing or environmental issues but certainly their obsession with diseases and brazen way in which they go about that research. For our next topic, I'd like to turn our attention back to escalating tension in the Indo-Pacific. That is the standoff over the Second Thomas Shoal, the area within the Philippines economic zone, where several incidents have occurred recently, including Chinese Coast Guard vessels acting, you know, going beyond their usual aggression and even deliberately hitting or bumping into Philippine vessels. This behavior, in addition to cyber-attacks against the Filipino government, were occurring even during the APEC Summit and the Biden-Xi meeting that occurred there. So, Miles, we've talked a lot about the PRC’s nefarious phishing habits and maritime claims. Before, I'd like to focus on escalation and US responses. The United States and Philippines are bound by a mutual defense treaty. What has been the US response thus far? And at what point would this sort of behavior warrant a more forceful response, let's say?
Miles Yu:
Well, the United States has been consistently in conducting its normal maritime activities according to international law in international waters, by the way. Yeah, this is a very worrisome, because this is in the immediate aftermath of a much hyped summit between President Biden and President Xi Jinping. The main purpose of that is to stabilize the bilateral relationship, to prevent escalation. And here, obviously, that kind of summit spirit that did not work. It didn't materialize because the escalation is happening. That's because we tend to solve the problem at the artificial level. We did not really try to solve the problem at its roots. The roots is that China claims it owns almost all of the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. So China consider international commons as it's a sovereign domain.
You know last Tuesday, November 21st United States and the Philippines conducted a three day joint maritime patrol inside the Philippine economic, exclusive economic zone, the EEZ. China violently accused the Philippine of conspiring with the faraway country, meaning the United States, to conduct a hostile action against China showing disrespect. China wants to be respected, but China does not act respectfully, and that's the problem. Manila, of course, shot back saying that it's their sovereign right to do such a maneuver with its treaty ally, the United States with its own economic zone. So over the weekend November 25th and 26th, the Philippines and Australia also conducted a joint drill inside the Philippine EEZ, involving Australian Royal Navy's destroyer Toowoomba, and a PA anti-submarine warfare and maritime surveillance plane. There are also two Philippine naval vessels and five Philippine maritime surveillance aircraft. I mean, what China did, China scrambled two fighter jets. One of the five Filipino aircraft is a A29B Super attack jet one of the five Filipino aircraft. And the two Chinese jets flew around and orbited the Philippine plane in a highly provocative and dangerous maneuver. And again, on Saturday, November 25th, the US Navy’s destroyer Hopper is a DDG belonging to the US seventh fleet conducted an innocent passage a legal freedom of navigation voyage in the national water near the Chinese occupy Paracel island in South China Sea. And China sent naval vessel to interdict and harass the China US destroyer. So military to military hotline at the senior level is okay, but it has to really solve the real problem. It is a dangerous operational level, provocative actions like this that will have to be dealt with before any high level communication line could have any meaning if the senior level does not really have the authority or does not have the willingness to control its operational provocation, and then hotline doesn't mean anything.
Shane Leary:
I want to ask, I mean, you've been very consistent in pointing out the degree to which China's aggression and bullying extends to all of its neighbors, and that it's really hard to find anyone in and around East Asia who has not had serious friction China. Are there examples of other nations that countries like the Philippines should look to who have stood up to this bullying in a meaningful way and such that China has been able to back down? What would a successful strategy look like for smaller nations trying to just sort of get China to back off?
Miles Yu:
Well, because of the enormity of the China's size and its material and human resources, and its aggressiveness. So most people, most countries in this region have shown their willingness to protect their sovereign rights and to show some toughness toward China. But overall, they also want China to behave nicely and to pursue a diplomatic solution. So it's given a tick sometimes, you know, some countries were very tough on China, for example, Vietnam and India on the other side. On the other hand no country actually is strong enough to, to basically to have a openly confrontational stance toward China. So China is basically is a bully in the neighborhood, and nobody knows about it. That's why United States, the only country that has the capability and the willingness to counter China's bullying act this country is very important. That's why United States has so many friends and allies, sometimes the, the hedge, but mostly the hedge, because they're worried about we may be hedging toward China.
So that's why it's very important for the United States to have a consistent unwavering intervention in the region, because it's not just about the United States, not just about the region, it's about global commons. $3 trillion worth of trade passes through the South China. Say, for example, you cannot allow China to dominate that and to make it a threat to global commerce and the peace and the stability. That's why it's very important for us to get involved, to act with confidence and with the alliance. And I think alliance is very important. Oh, so far we're doing okay. Little bit too slow to my taste, but I think we are always aligned, our friends and allies, in addition to the three treaty allies, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, we have conducted a lot of multilateral operations and discourses with countries like India, Vietnam, Australia, and of course Taiwan.
Shane Leary:
On that note, I just want to ask, I mean, when we think about a US shift in focus to the Indo-Pacific, do you ever get the sense that we are too singularly focused on Taiwan, such that we don't spread our attention enough to incidents like these or to other countries in the region? Or do you think we're doing a pretty good job in that regard?
Miles Yu:
We appear to be singularly focused on Taiwan because China is a singularly focused on Taiwan. But the impression in your question, actually is a very valid point that is Taiwan is not the ultimate goal of China. The ultimate goal of China is to have a global dominance. Taiwan is just one part of the global strategy China is implementing. So that's why we should keep a clear eye on this larger scheme that we are going to pause China's attempt to take Taiwan, but in the meantime, be mindful of China's global strategy, because what really is important is that we cannot really focus on one particular battle and forget the entire war.
Shane Leary:
For our last topic we are now one year out from the White Paper Movement that began in response to a deadly fire on November 24th of last year in Urumqi the capital of Xinjiang, and ended with the lifting of zero covid restrictions in China. It's important to note the protests went further than any particular policy or event with many calling outright for broader civil liberties, and even for Xi Jinping himself to step down. What is the legacy of this event thus far, and has it stuck in the minds of Chinese citizens and dissidents in the way other acts of defiance? Has, does it look to you that it will possess an enduring legacy?
Miles Yu:
Well, first of all, let's just say a few words about what White Paper Movement is. White Paper Movement is derived from the, the fact that the many protestors in November and December 2022, they held up, they held up the piece of white paper, regular, a full-size paper, just blank paper held up, and to protest China's suppression of freedom of expression. So that basically spread out all, all kinds country. I think the significance has been overlooked because this is the first time in memory that a nationwide mass revoked against the Chinese Communist Party policy that is a zero covid lockdown and a consciousness of Chinese Communist party leadership, which was built as of supreme importance and closely associated with the prestige and reputation of the consummate dictator Xi Jinping actually end up winning.
And so Xi Jinping had to abandon his lunatic policy to save his regime because the regime was foundation was shaken. So this is why it's very significant, it is been overlooked. The meaning of the White Paper Movement is that people power really worked. It can and will force a fully armed dictatorship to give up its draconian and anti-democratic policies, because the leadership realize if it doesn't give up, it would be overthrown by the angry people. It gives a lot of encouragement to people in China. You ask me how many people know about this? Everybody knows about that. But the sign of disenchantment has to be indirect and oblique because of the nature of the regime. I'll tell you about the amount ago during the Halloween in cities like Shanghai, people use Halloween as excuse to express their will and to commemorate the White Paper Movement during that Halloween, they say they went wild.
Many people dressed like a gigantic cotton swap basically is a, it's a, a satirical reference to the zero covid lockdown policy. And also some people just stick a lot of white papers to your body going around like a ghost. So you, you can see, and, and of course, all those guys were dealt with by the police. Right now to me the white paper protest movement actually broke a very traditional pattern of Chinese mass protests in that, that it involves a much broader spectrum of social causes, not just pure intellectuals led uprising or student led rebellion. It involves the middle class, the properties, citizens, urban and rural people, and of course the intellectuals, on college and university campuses. So the lesson from this White Paper Movement is that for the people to win over dictatorship, it has to be a united movement evolving as many sectors of the population as possible. My overall take about this point in time when we commemorate the one year white paper movement is that history will give the 2022 White Paper Movement much more credit, as it is a landmark movement in Chinese democratic movement.
Shane Leary:
That's very interesting what you said about the, the shift in the sections of society that were involved in this protest as opposed to previous ones. And I'm curious, you know, when you talk about all of these groups needing to come together in order for meaningful change, one group that is just as important, it seems as the dissident community outside of mainland China, I'm curious how this movement is going how significant its impact is on either governments abroad or within mainland China, and whether the, the white paper movement had any significant impact on that community in the way it operates.
Miles Yu:
Well, first of all, let's just see the overt development in many overseas enclaves like New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Paris, London, Brussels. You have a lot of new Chinese resistance organizations out of this White Paper Movement. So, I mean, they're, they're grouping, they were coalescing but they, you know they're animated. So that's very important on the subterranean deeper level, what the white paper movement really did to China domestically is also very significant because there is a huge section of the establishment of the Chinese Communist Party apparatus. They become disillusioned with Xi Jinping and with leadership style, with his policy. So you see a huge number of people who have expressed their views on Xi Jinping, on his leadership in a very certain bold way, and, and in a very clever way in the, in the sense, I think, you know because of the White Paper Movement that the government of China, the Chinese Communist Party government has lost a big chunk of its credibility. And that's why the overall mood in China is one of malaise. And I will not go far to say this is a non-violent disobedience, but movement. But it is, it is pretty close to that.
Shane Leary:
Well, Miles, I think that's all the time we have for this week. Thanks so much for taking the time and I look forward to speaking to you again next week.
Miles Yu:
Alright, thank you. And see you next week.
Shane Leary:
Thanks for listening to this week's episode of China Insider. For Chinese Language listeners, be sure to check out our monthly Chinese language episodes. And for those who prefer written analysis, subscribe to our weekly newsletter. China digests the best place to stay up to date on miles analysis and the latest news on China. As always, you can stay up to date on the China Center's activities at www.hudson.org.